🚨 The Liberal Party of Canada, led by Mark Carney, will form a fourth consecutive government, although it's not yet clear whether it will be a minority or majority.

Over a dozen seat counts remain too close to call as Elections Canada continues to count special ballots.

Current seat counts indicate:

🟥 Liberal Party of Canada • Parti Libéral du Canada – 169 (+17)
🟦 Conservative Party of Canada – 144 (+24)
⬜️ Bloc Québécois– 22 (-11)
🟧 New Democratic Party of Canada– 7 (-17)
🟩 Green Party of Canada • Le Parti vert du Canada – 1 (-1)

Within three weeks, the official certification of election results will occur, and new Members of Parliament will be officially confirmed. 

If the current seat count remains, the Liberals will form a minority government, three seats short of the 172 required for a majority.

100 Days Post-Election: What Now? 

When a Canadian federal election takes place, a significant process unfolds to transition the country to a new or renewed government. From election day to policy formation, key decisions happen within the first 100 days. 

Return of the Writs (Within 3 Weeks):
Within approximately three weeks after Election Day, the official certification of election results occurs. New Members of Parliament (MPs) are formally confirmed.

During this time, senior political staff also begin to be appointed, including the Prime Minister's Chief of Staff and key advisors. These early appointments are crucial in helping the government establish its priorities. 

One of the first appointments made is typically the Prime Minister's Chief of Staff, a role critical to managing the Prime Minister's Office's strategic direction and political operations. 

Senior communications staff, such as the press secretary, communications director, and policy advisors, are also appointed. These appointees help with message coordination and setting policy priorities for the new government. 

Cabinet Formation (two to three weeks):
The Prime Minister announces the formation of the new Cabinet, with ministers taking their oaths of office.

The swearing-in ceremony for the Prime Minister and Cabinet typically takes place within two to three weeks after the election and must occur after the results of the election are certified. 

For example, in 2015, the election was on October 19, and Justin Trudeau swore in his Cabinet on November 4, and in 2021, the election was on September 20, and Cabinet was sworn in on October 26.

Parliament Reconvenes 

After the Cabinet is sworn in, the Prime Minister calls Parliament back into session, often within 4 to 6 weeks after the election.

During this first sitting, the Speaker of the House of Commons is elected and the Governor General delivers the Speech from the Throne, outlining the new government's legislative agenda and priorities for the coming term. 

This period also enables the new government to implement its policies, laying the groundwork for what is to come next. 

But what about Budget?

Normally, the federal government tables its annual budget in March or April. As the April 28 election interrupts that, the government will use interim supply bills to authorize its basic operations.

Interim supply is a short-term spending approval - it gives the government permission to spend money for a few months based on previous fiscal plans.

Instead of presenting a full budget immediately, the government may initially provide a fiscal update or a mini-budget that outlines its immediate financial priorities in late spring or summer 2025. This typically occurs several months after the election, when the government has had time to review its previous fiscal policies and establish its priorities.

A comprehensive federal budget would likely be presented in early 2026, once the government's fiscal and policy priorities are finalized.

Notable events 

As the new government takes shape, several major events will occur within its first 100 days, which will be crucial for the country's economic and diplomatic positioning.

1. On June 4, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, which is a critical event for the economy.
   • The Bank of Canada sets the monetary policy rate to influence inflation and economic growth. For the new government, understanding the Bank's stance on interest rates will provide essential insight into the economic outlook, affecting their fiscal policy and budgetary decisions moving forward.
   • This event could shape the government's responses on inflation, housing, and economic stability, which will be significant points of focus in the early months.
2. From June 15 to 17, Canada will host the G7 Leaders' Summit in Kanaskis, Alberta. This global summit brings together leaders from seven of the world's most advanced economies — Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, and Japan — to discuss international issues, including global trade, climate change, and economic policies. 
   • For a new Canadian government, this summit will be a crucial opportunity to showcase Canada's stance on global issues, strengthen relationships with international partners, and shape global policies in areas such as trade, security, and environmental action. 
3. From June 24 to 26, the NATO Summit will be held at the World Forum in The Hague, the Netherlands, bringing together several Canadian allies and partners engaged in upholding an international defence network. 
   • Canada has faced heightened pressure from NATO members, particularly the United States, to increase defence spending to two per cent of GDP, a target Carney states will be hit by 2030. The Summit will present an opportunity to assess how key defence partners receive Canada's commitment towards spending goals. 

As the new government steps into office, its success will depend on a clear strategic direction, strong leadership appointments, and the ability to manage policy priorities while ensuring stability and effective governance.

Analysis

Recalibrations of parties and leadership due to shifting political landscapes have resulted in notable upsets and seat flips across the country. 

🟦 Conservative Concerns

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre lost his seat in Carleton, ending his nearly twenty-year tenure as the riding's MP.

Liberal candidate, Bruce Fanjoy, secured 50.8 per cent of the vote, while Poilievre secured 45.8 per cent, reflecting a five per cent margin of victory.

Poilievre did not resign from his position as leader of the party, and in his concession speech, stated that the party will work with the Prime Minister on the shared goals of securing a new trade deal and protecting Canadian sovereignty.

Early results also indicate that the Conservatives have secured 41.4 per cent of the total vote, surpassing the 33.7 per cent of the popular vote achieved by the party in the 2021 federal election. Conservatives still managed to gain 20 seats in this election and received the highest popular vote since 1988.

However, the notable loss following several months of holding 20-point leads in the polls will likely prompt questions over Poilievre's continued leadership of the party.

Without a seat, Poilievre cannot serve as the Leader of the Official Opposition in the House of Commons. If he does remain as leader, he will need a Conservative MP to sacrifice their seat, allowing him to run in a by-election to fill the vacancy.

🟧 NDP Nosedive 

Finishing third in his own riding of Burnaby Central, Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party is expected to lose 17 of the 24 seats it had at dissolution, earning just 6.3 per cent of the vote. As a result, Singh has resigned as NDP leader, stepping down once an interim leader is selected.

In British Columbia, where the NDP previously held the largest number of seats, the results were particularly disappointing for the party. As of Tuesday, April 29, the party was projected ot win just two BC ridings, Vancouver East and Courtenay-Alberni.

In Quebec, Alexandre Boulerice is projected to retain the NDP's only seat in the province. The party failed to win a single riding in Atlantic Canada. In Ontario, the NDP is on track to lose all five of its seats, including Windsor West, which has been held by Brian Masse since 2002.

In the Prairies, the party is expected to hold only one of its three seats in Manitoba, while it retains its Edmonton Strathcona seat in Alberta.

The NDP also lost official party status in this election, falling short of the required 12 seats. Having official party status gives a party funding for research and staffing, more speaking time during debates and question period, guaranteed spots on House Committees, and recognition in procedural matters.

Losing official party status is viewed as a significant setback, raising questions about the party's relevance and viability as a national force. 

With the resignation of the party's leader and diminished parliamentary presence, the NDP now faces a critical rebuilding period, politically, organizationally, and ideologically. The party will need to rethink its message, structure, and coalition of voters, possibly shifting focus towards historical regional strongholds or redefining its role in Canada's political landscape. 

📨 Western Woes

In her post-election statement, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith promised to protect the province from future hostile acts by Ottawa, particularly those related to resource development. 

As leader of the United Conservative Party, Smith has frequently criticized the Liberals' governance of the resource-rich province and advocated for greater independence and autonomy for Alberta.

In her statement, Smith invited Carney to improve relations between Alberta and the federal government, stating that she invites "the Prime Minister to immediately commence working with our government to reset the relationship between Ottawa and Alberta with meaningful action rather than hollow rhetoric."

While Smith previously warned that a Carney victory could deepen regional divisions and even lead to a national unity crisis, her recent messaging signals a willingness to engage, provided Alberta's concerns are acknowledged and addressed.

Smith seems to be challenging Ottawa to reset the relationship and work collaboratively with Alberta, emphasizing fairness, respect for provincial jurisdiction, and the need for meaningful dialogue amid times of heightened economic and political uncertainty. 

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