What's Happening?

It was a busy week in Canadian politics. Here's what you need to know:

Alberta

• 🍎 Teachers' Strike: Finance Minister Horner announced that the government and the Alberta Teachers' Association have reached a tentative agreement. According to Horner, the deal includes nearly $10 billion in total investment, with $8.6 billion allocated for building and renovating over 130 schools, as well as hiring 3,000 additional teachers. ATA members will vote on the agreement between September 27 and 29. If the deal is rejected, teachers may proceed with strike action on October 6. The ATA’s current strike mandate originates from a June 2025 vote, in which 95 per cent of members voted in favour of authorizing strike action.

• 📜 Mandate Mission: Premier Smith issued new mandate letters for nine ministers ahead of the upcoming October 23 Speech from the Throne to open a new legislative session. The first five letters direct Education, Advanced Education, Transportation, Infrastructure, and Municipal Affairs ministers to expand schools and career programs, strengthen post-secondary and trades, advance infrastructure, and improve municipal oversight. The four newest letters task Public Safety, Justice, Children and Family Services, and Intergovernmental and International Relations ministers with protecting public safety, defending Alberta’s sovereignty, supporting children and Indigenous communities, and expanding Alberta's international presence.

• 🚗 Coverage Cap: Alberta has extended the 7.5 per cent "good driver rate cap" on auto insurance through 2026 in advance of a new care-first auto insurance model, expected in 2027. Updated eligibility rules for the cap now require drivers to have no at-fault accidents in the past six years as well as no convictions under the Criminal Code, major, or minor traffic offences within the past four, three, and three years, respectively. The Automobile Insurance Rate Board (AIRB) may not approve overall premium increases greater than 12.5 per cent–up from the previous 10 per cent limit.
• 📈 Provincial Population: Latest population estimates from Statistics Canada shows Alberta has led the country in interprovincial migration for 12 straight quarters, gaining 6,187 residents from other provinces in the second quarter of 2025. Combined with international immigration and natural growth, the province’s population is sitting at 5,029,346 people as of July 1. Most of Alberta's interprovincial migrants came from Ontario, Saskatchewan, and British Columbia, marking net gains of 2,987, 1,064, and 1,025, respectively.

• 🎤 Support Strategy: Provincial and territorial ministers responsible for mental health, addiction, and recovery hosted an inaugural meeting in Banff this week, launching a new forum to coordinate policy and share best practices across jurisdictions. Chaired by Alberta's Minister of Mental Health and Addiction, Rick Wilson, the group committed to building system capacity, addressing service gaps, partnering with Indigenous governments, and securing long-term federal funding. The forum aims to strengthen collaboration and press Ottawa for sustained support, while reaffirming that healthcare remains a provincial and territorial responsibility.

• ⚖️ Clause Concerns: According to a leaked internal memo, Alberta is considering invoking the notwithstanding clause on three laws regarding school pronouns, sports participation, and access to gender-related care, amid ongoing court challenges. Reports show officials were instructed to consider legal implications and options for cabinet considertation on October 21. Federal Minister of Justice and Attorney General, Sean Fraser has asked the Supreme Court to rule on the preventive use of the clause, arguing courts should be able to declare rights violations and review prolonged use of the clause. 

• 🗳️ Municipal Matters: The deadline for nominations in Alberta's municipal elections passed on Monday at noon, marking the official close for candidates to enter the race. Municipal elections will be held across Alberta, encompassing all 344 municipalities as voters elect mayors, reeves, councillors, and school board trustees on Monday, October 20. In Calgary, 126 candidates filed, including nine for mayor, 73 for city council seats, and 22 for school board trustee positions. Edmonton saw 140 candidates enter the race, with 13 running for mayor, 81 for city council, and approximately 50 for school board trustee positions.

Canada

• 🔎 Federal Fiscal Outlook: The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) projects Canada’s federal deficit will climb to $68.5 billion in 2025-26, up from $51.7 billion in 2024-25. Interim PBO Jason Jacques warned the federal debt-to-GDP ratio (an important fiscal anchor, self-imposed by the Liberal government) is no longer on a declining path. Included in the outlook is $115.1 billion in new net spending over five years, but does not appear to account for Ottawa’s plans to ramp up defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035, or other 2025 Liberal campaign commitments.
• 🎤 Trade Talks: The federal government has launched public consultations on the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA or USMCA–depending on where you are when you're talking about it!) ahead of the July 2026 review to inform upcoming talks with the United States and Mexico. Consultations are open until November 3. Canada and Mexico recently unveiled a new partnership to strengthen trade and security ties, drive infrastructure investment, and pursue joint climate and conservation initiatives.
• 🤝 Diplomatic Deal: Canada has signed a trade deal and defence cooperation pact with Indonesia. The agreement, the first bilateral trade pact Canada has signed with an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member, will reduce or eliminate tariffs on over 95 per cent of Canadian exports once fully implemented. A defence pact commitment will seek to deepen collaboration on maritime security, cyber defence, peacekeeping, and military education. 

Why it Matters.

Let's unpack the details of what happened this week and why it matters.